For more on the primary and who’s running, see our voter guide. On Tuesday night, we’ll have live election results from Associated Press and I’ll be posting live analysis through the evening.
Donald Trump is not on the ballot Tuesday, but in a way he is.
Virginia holds a smattering of primaries across the state, and his influence within the Republican Party will be tested in the most prominent ones.
The marquee race will be the congressional primary in the 5th District, where House Freedom Caucus chair Bob Good, R-Campbell County, faces a challenge from state Sen. John McGuire, R-Goochland County, whose entire campaign seems based on his claim that he’s more loyal to Trump than Good is — and for which he’s earned Trump’s endorsem*nt (and a tele-rally Monday evening).
There will also be a Republican primary for the party’s U.S. Senate nomination, congressional primaries for both parties for seats in and around Northern Virginia, and a Republican city council nomination in Lynchburg that’s of more interest than usual. There’s also a Republican primary for Vinton District supervisor in Roanoke County that’s tantamount to election and a Democratic primary for three city council seats in Roanoke that has taken a strange turn. There are four candidates on the ballot. One says he’s dropped out, but hasn’t officially done so — that requires a legal notice to the registrar — so he could still win.
Here’s what to look for in each of these contests:
5th Congressional District Republicans: A MAGA smackdown between Good and McGuire
Good is getting hit from two sides. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy — whom Good helped oust — has made Good a target. So has Trump. His problem with Good? Good originally endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for president, and that’s apparently an unforgivable sin in Trump World.
This race is complicated (and interesting) in another way: Each candidate seems weak in his own geographical base. Good ought to reign supreme in the Lynchburg area, but that city’s mayor and vice mayor have both endorsed McGuire. Three sitting members of the Campbell County Board of Supervisors (where Good served before going to Congress) and one former member have all endorsed McGuire. That’s never a good sign when the people who ought to know a candidate best are endorsing the other guy. However, the Republican committee in McGuire’s home county have passed a no-confidence measure against him, and many Republican officeholders there have lined up behind Good — so what are we to make of that?
Good has won two contested nominations before, but both of those were in conventions where party activists dominate; this will be the first time he’s faced the larger electorate of a Republican primary. How will those voters feel about him? We’re about to find out.
When the returns start to come in, I’ll be looking at four places for clues.
First (and second): the candidates’ two home areas, for the reasons above — is there any softness for either? Any softness for Good in the Lynchburg area will be more detrimental to him than softness in Goochland is for McGuire simply because of population — 16.59% of the district’s population is in Lynchburg and Campbell County, just 3.65% in Goochland County.
Third, I’ll be looking at Danville and Pittsylvania County. Pittsylvania is the third biggest locality in the district; when Danville is added in, 12.58% of the district’s voters are there. Add in Halifax County to the east and Mecklenburg to the east of that, and there’s 20.73% of the district’s population. The southern tier of localities is also a place where neither candidate has any natural geographic ties — although Good does have the advantage of being the incumbent there.
Finally, I’ll be looking at Albemarle County and Charlottesville. That part of the district accounts for 20.36% of the district’s voters; it’s also where support for Trump was weakest in the presidential primary. Both localities went heavily for Nikki Haley. In a contest between two candidates who both profess their love for Trump, how will those voters go? Or will they even bother to turn out? It would be ironic if the least Trumpy part of the district made the difference, but it’s entirely possible.
Regardless of who wins (or how), the outcome here will make national news. Either the House Freedom Caucus chair who brought down the speaker will win despite Trump’s opposition, or Trump will get the credit for lifting McGuire to victory.
Cardinal’s Markus Schmidt has written lots about this primary. His most recent story looked at how it’s now the second-most expensive primary in the country; a full index of his coverage of the race is on our voter guide.
5th Congressional District Democrats: Three vie for right to oppose either Good or McGuire
This three-way primary is as different from the vicious primary taking place on the Republican side as it can be. This seems a pretty gentle affair. None of these candidates are particularly well-known district-wide. Each comes from a different geographic base — Paul Riley from Albemarle County, Gary Terry from Danville, Gloria Witt from Amherst County. Whoever wins this Democratic primary will begin as an underdog to whoever wins the Republican primary: Two years ago, Good won reelection with 57.6% of the vote.
Cardinal’s Markus Schmidt wrote about these candidates.
Republican Senate primary: Can a Trump-endorsed candidate who called part of the Republican base ‘podunk’ win a five-way race?
Trump has endorsed Hung Cao, a retired military officer from Loudoun County who two years ago lost a congressional bid. Under normal circ*mstances, that would be enough to lift Cao out of the pack — and maybe it still will. Cao, though, has been beset by difficulties. First, the Gannett newspaper chain raised questions about why a political action committee he founded last year to raise money for General Assembly candidates didn’t actually send any money their way, but instead spent much of it on his own consultants. Cao responded by calling the Staunton News Leader — one of those Gannett papers — a “podunk local paper.” Then he said Abingdon was too far to drive for a campaign forum. Later, he doubled down and said Hampton Roads was too far to drive, too. Also, the Pittsylvania County Republican Committee posted a plea on Facebook for him to visit that locality, pointing out he’s the only candidate who hadn’t.
All these communities are in Republican strongholds — the Shenandoah Valley, Southwest Virginia, Southside — so I’m surprised to see a Republican candidate give them so little respect. Will that matter? We’ll find out. If Cao wins, the easy explanation will be his Trump endorsem*nt. If he doesn’t, it will be that he’s been a lazy campaigner who has talked down to some key parts of the Republican base. The winner here faces Democrat Tim Kaine in the fall.
Here’s another interesting twist to the Republican Senate race: Southside may have disproportionate impact on the nomination.
Here’s a figure to think about: The 5th District accounts for about 9% of the state’s population but so far accounts for 19% of the early ballots on the Republican side. That percentage is likely to come down — Republicans continue to prefer same-day voting — but Republicans in the 5th District have more reasons to vote than do Republicans in the eight congressional districts with no GOP congressional primaries, so the 5th will still probably account for a disproportionate number of voters.
Who does this help? I’m not sure, but keep in mind that a few weeks ago the Pittsylvania County Republican Committee took the usual position of pointing out that Hung Cao had yet to visit the county — the only Senate contender not to do so. If I were advising a Republican Senate candidate, I’d have been telling him to spend a lot of time in Southside to capitalize on this heavy turnout.
I realize yard signs don’t vote but, for whatever it’s worth, I spent the weekend in the Shenandoah Valley — in counties that are 70%-plus Republican — and saw only two places with yard signs, both for Jonathan Emord. I saw more Pride flags than I did campaign signs. Around the Roanoke Valley, I’ve seen a clutch of signs for Eddie Garcia and one lone Chuck Smith sign stuck by the side of the road in Fincastle. It seems safe to say this has not been a particularly high-profile contest.
Katie Thomason has more on the Senate primary.
Lynchburg Republican city council primary: A referendum on what type of Republican the party wants
In terms of drama, this may rank just behind the Good-McGuire contest. Vice Mayor Chris Faraldi faces a challenge from Peter Alexander for the Republican nomination in Ward IV. This is part of the sharp split between Republican factions in Lynchburg. Mayor Stephanie Reed has endorsed Faraldi, while fellow council members Marty Misjuns and Jeff Helgeson have made it clear they’d like to see Faraldi ousted. Misjuns has been the lightning rod on the council since his election in 2022, so while Faraldi and Alexander are the ones on the ballot here, one question for voters may be how they feel about Misjuns (and Helgeson). If they like Misjuns’ aggressive tactics (which brought him a censure by council members), then they might want to vote for Alexander. If they don’t, then a vote for Faraldi would serve as an indirect rebuke.
What really seems at stake here is the tone that the council sets and ultimately who should be mayor, a position chosen by council members. A Faraldi win (coupled with a victory in November) would no doubt keep Reed in the mayor’s chair. An Alexander win would set the stage for council member Jeff Hegelson to be elevated to that position, depending on the outcome of council elections in November. I hate to be dramatic and call this a battle for the soul of the Republican Party, but it’s definitely a referendum on what kind of Republican voters in Ward IV want to represent them.
Rachel Mahoney had a preview of this primary for Cardinal.
Roanoke Democratic city council primary: How a candidate who dropped out could inspire mischief — and win
Four candidates are seeking three slots: Jamaal Jackson, Terry McGure, Phazhon Nash and Benjamin Woods. Jackson says he’s dropped out, but he hasn’t sent any legal notification of his withdrawal to the registrar, so legally he remains a candidate. That means a candidate who dropped out could still win.
So far, about 1,100 people have voted early. If Tuesday’s turnout matches that in the city’s Democratic primary two years ago, that means about one-quarter of the ballots have already been cast. Jackson ran two years ago, so he may have higher name ID than some of the other contenders. He also has been reasonably well-funded, better so than Woods. That means it’s quite possible the early vote has Jackson in one of the three winning spots. If Jackson’s “withdrawal” announcement causes voters to conclude there’s no reason to vote, that will depress turnout and heighten the importance of those early votes. But wait — this gets even more interesting.
Jackson dropped out after the petitions he had submitted to qualify for the ballot were questioned. The party chair had certified him for the ballot, but later it was found that Jackson didn’t have enough signatures. The matter is now under investigation by police, because it’s alleged that Jackson improperly used signatures from his independent run two years ago. If Jackson wins on Tuesday, will his election get challenged on the grounds that he shouldn’t have been on the ballot in the first place?
The situation also raises the prospect of mischief. Because Virginia doesn’t register voters by party, anyone can vote in this primary. What if Republicans decided to show up Tuesday and vote for Jackson on the theory that he might be an easy target in November — especially since he still hasn’t paid fines from campaign violations in his 2022 run?
Vinton District Republican primary: Tantamount to election
This one is pretty straightforward: The winner will almost certainly be the next supervisor because, as of right now, there’s no one else on the ballot in November. Tammy Shepherd is already the supervisor, appointed to fill a vacancy. Now she and school board member Tim Greenway are running for the nomination in a special election to fill out the rest of the term. She’s a more conventional pro-economic development Republican; he’s more of a culture warrior. Mark D. Robertson wrote a preview of this race for Cardinal if you want to know more.
Elsewhere in the state, there are some other primaries of interest:
7th Congressional District Democrats: A seven-way race
This is the district that Democrat Abigail Spanberger is leaving to run for governor. Seven Democrats want to succeed her, including one member of the General Assembly, Del. Briana Sewell, and one former member, Elizabeth Guzman. Financially, retired military officer Eugene Vindman (brother of Alexander Vindman, who was the whistleblower that led to Trump’s first impeachment) is the leader. Vindman also has the least connection to the district, so this race is something of a test between money and grassroots support.
7th Congressional District Republicans: A six-way race
Derrick Anderson finished second in a six-way Republican primary two years ago, so is considered the front-runner this time.
10th Congressional District Democrats: a 12-way race
Democracy seems alive and well here. Democratic Jennifer Wexton is retiring for health reasons in a Democratic district that’s opened the door for so many candidates you can’t count them on all your fingers. This includes five sitting state legislators (Jennifer Boysko, Dan Helmer, Michelle Maldonado, David Reid and Suhas Subramanyam), one former state legislator (former House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn) and one former state cabinet secretary (former education secretary Atif Qarni). It might be easier to list the Democrats not running!
Wexton has endorsed Subramanyam, which ought to help him. But all the state legislators have a base of some sort, while Qarni might benefit from a growing number of Muslim voters in the Northern Virginia district. Helmer has been a strong contender, especially in fundraising, but late last week was hit with allegations of sexual assault.
Fun fact: In theory, if a dozen candidates split the vote evenly, each one would get 8.3% of the vote, so it may not take that many votes to win here.
State Board of Elections records go back to 1948. In that time, the lowest vote-getter to win a Democratic congressional primary was Edmund Campbell, who in 1952 won the 10th District nomination with 39.8% of the vote. The lowest vote-getter to win a congressional primary of any kind was Yesli Vega, who in 2022 won the 7th District Republican nomination with 28.9% of the vote.
10th Congressional District Republicans: A four-way race
None of these candidates has held elected office before. Whoever wins will be an underdog in November. The question is: How much of one? Two years ago, Wexton won reelection with 53.7% of the vote. Her Republican opponent that year was Hung Cao, who’s now running for the Senate nomination. Here’s a thought experiment: Would he have been better off running against for the 10th District congressional nomination than running for the Senate nomination?
2nd District Democrats: Two Democrats vie for right to oppose Kiggans
Jake Denton and Missy Cotty Smasal are competing for the right to run against Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans and independent Robert Reid in a Hampton Roads congressional district that’s historically swung back and forth between parties, although the most recent redistricting gives it more of a Republican lean.
1st District Democrats: Two seek right to oppose Wittman
This district is a strongly Republican one, but two Democrats are running for the right to oppose incumbent Rob Wittman: Herb Jones and Leslie Mehta. Of note: Jones grew up in Roanoke.Mehta has drawn unfavorable attention because, as former legal director for the American Civil Liberties Union, she represented the organizer of the infamous Rally the Right event in Charlottesville in 2017 that drew white supremacists from across the nation and turned violent.
11th District Democrats: Connolly faces a challenge
Longtime Democratic incumbent Gerry Connolly faces a challenge from Ashan Nasar. Connolly has lots more money. While there are other primaries that have been hotter, this one has generated the most early voting. Maybe somebody’s doing a really good job of turning out their supporters, or maybe that just reflects how Northern Virginia Democrats like early voting more than anybody else in the state.
For those who haven’t voted early, the polls open Tuesday at 6 a.m. and close at 7 p.m. We’ll have results — and live commentary — throughout the evening, so check back to see how all this works out. And if you really like politics, sign up for my free weekly political newsletter that goes out every Friday afternoon; think of it as a bonus column, delivered straight to your in-box.
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