Another week, another trade target. That’s what you get when your favorite team doesn’t qualify for the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs – months and months of speculation.
Still, it’s warranted. As Bill Guerin’s faith among Wild fans begins to wane, he must look to add impact pieces now, even if they remain in cap hell for one more season.
Wild insider Michael Russo has repeatedly reported the Wild’s desire to potentially add a scoring veteran in free agency with the upcoming slight increase in the salary cap. We wouldn't hate it even if it were a David Perron-type player. Lately, however, we’ve been focusing on what Guerin could do to get creative on the trade market rather than relying on veteran options past their prime.
Last week, our first target was Nikolaj Ehlers, the Winnipeg Jets’ dynamic forward. Ehlers made sense financially and was a stylistic fit, even if executing an in-division trade could be challenging. Earlier this week, we discussed Martin Necas, the Carolina Hurricanes’ upcoming RFA. Necas would be another stylistic fit for what the Wild needs. However, like Ehlers, Necas falls into the category of an established, extremely productive player who would command a haul in any trade.
What if the Wild opted for a lower-priced option they could take a gamble on? A player who has yet to establish himself in the NHL as an above-average forward yet still possesses tantalizing upside?
Introducing New Jersey Devils forward Alexander Holtz!
Drafted 7th overall in 2020, just two spots ahead of Marco Rossi, Holtz has struggled to break through at the NHL level. Potentially the best pure shooter in his draft class, the right-handed Swede finally played his first full season in the NHL this past year, recording 16 goals and 28 points.
While it’s justifiable for a 22-year-old to struggle with consistency, Holtz was under fire late in the season. His general manager was pretty blunt about it, too. “He has not had a good year,” said Tom Fitzgerald in March. Holtz’s 15 even-strength goals were encouraging. Still, he has well-established struggles on the defensive side of the puck, and it’s only exasperated on a team full of offensive-leaning forwards. It hasn’t been a great fit for Holtz in New Jersey.
Perhaps he needs a change of scenery. And if the rumors are true that Holtz is available via trade this summer, he may be worth the chance for Minnesota to take a shot on.
Let’s first explore what makes Holtz such an intriguing player and then discuss the potential cost of acquiring the young sniper.
Plain and simple, Holtz can rip the puck. In their 2020 NHL Draft Guide, Elite Prospects may have put it best: “His shot is as good as it gets…. Holtz is a pure sniper as currently constructed, and he has the potential to be a first-line finisher with triggerman utility on the power play. He’s a special, special talent.”
Maybe Minnesota Wild fans remember when he put that finishing talent on full display during a 3-5 loss against New Jersey in November.
Holtz is a natural scorer. If you watch the rest of those highlights, you’ll see he possesses more than a great shot. Holtz creates his shot chances with his hockey IQ away from the puck. His ability to find scoring areas on the ice to allow him time to release his shot is already a plus attribute for NHL standards. Placing him on the wing opposite a playmaker of Mats Zuccarello’s stature has the potential to be fireworks.
At six feet and nearly 200 pounds, his size does not deter him from competing in front of the net.
But while Holtz’ fit next to Zuccarello and Rossi on the second line is betting on his game rounding into full form, the current iteration of Holtz would immediately impact the Wild’s streaky powerplay.
For the same reasons that signing an aging David Perron would help the power play, trading for Holtz would immediately provide a right-handed threat opposite Kaprizov. His ability to excel in the bumper position or as the flank opposite of Kaprizov gives the Wild the sort of flexibility on the man advantage they have been lacking.
Why would Holtz be available then if the talent is clearly there? Why would the Devils look to move on from a top-10 pick just a few seasons after drafting him? It’s a numbers game in New Jersey. Holtz’s profile as a forward is similar to many of New Jersey’s other young forwards. Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, and Dawson Mercer are all young forwards who excel in the offensive zone. However, all but Hischier struggle mightily on defense.
It was a significant reason why the Devils regressed this season and missed the playoffs, despite many people having them as a sleeper team coming out of the Eastern Conference.
Most importantly, New Jersey has already allocated a large chunk of their cap space to the forward core. They’ve signed Timo Meier, Hughes, Bratt, Hischier, and Ondrej Palat to large deals of at least $6 million AAV through at least 2026-27. With the more “in favor” Dawson Mercer due for a contract this summer, it will be impossible for their front office to justify extending Holtz next summer when they have desperate needs on defense and in goal.
Enter the Minnesota Wild, who have a goaltender on the trade market and a plethora of defensive prospects to offer. Our proposed offer would give the Devils the immediate help they need, and the Wild could secure a cheap, former 7th overall pick to fill in their top 6.
To the Wild: Holtz + mid-round draft pick
To the Devils: Jake Middleton (50% retained), Filip Gustavsson, and Ryan O’Rourke
New Jersey is in a compete-now window and would probably prefer to flip Holtz for players who can help them win now. For Minnesota, such a trade would give them an entry-level contract to fill the hole on the second line. The trade also excludes the 13th overall pick. They could use the cost savings from adding Holtz and this year’s first-round pick to pursue a replacement for Middleton on the top pairing aggressively.
It's the type of creative trade the Wild would be wise to explore. Signing a veteran forward on the open market is a short-term solution with minimal upside. However, pursuing a player like Holtz from a team as desperate to win as New Jersey would give them the upside potential to make the decision a home run for years to come.
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